Chinese Policies and Their Implications for Climate Change After 2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61353/ma.0240001Keywords:
Political economy of climate, carbon emissions, , industrial policies, energy security,, military-industrial complex, People’s Republic of China.Abstract
This study examines China’s industrial, military, and energy policies within a geopolitical framework that links structures of power to trajectories of climate change. China is presented as a central actor in shaping the global environmental system, given its industrial weight, heavy reliance on fossil fuels, and expanding military capacity. The study is grounded in the premise that China’s carbon emissions reflect structural interactions between the imperatives of economic growth and considerations of national security, thereby constituting a strategic expression of its position within the international system. The research is structured around three main axes. The first analyzes the impact of industrial policies, highlighting the role of energy-intensive heavy industries in deepening China’s carbon footprint, alongside the limited scope of structural mitigation measures. The second axis explores the military dimension as a latent source of emissions, focusing on the military-industrial complex and operational activities, along with their direct and indirect environmental implications. The third axis addresses energy policies, emphasizing the continued dominance of coal and the persistence of fossil fuel dependence despite gradual shifts toward cleaner energy sources. The study concludes that China’s climate challenge is embedded in a deeply rooted developmental structure that extends beyond partial technical solutions, underscoring the need to redefine the relationship between economic and military power and the requirements of sustainability within a comprehensive transformative framework.
References
1. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI). (2023). Vietnam ramps up Spratly Island dredging. https://amti.csis.org/vietnam-ramps-up-spratly-island-dredging/
2. Carbon Brief. (2023). The carbon brief profile: China. https://www.carbonbrief.org/the-carbon-brief-profile-china/
3. Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets (CEADs). (2023). Annual report 2023 for carbon dioxide emission accounts of global emerging economies. https://www.ceads.net/news/20231415.html
4. Center for Climate and Security. (2022). China’s climate security vulnerabilities.
5. Chang, C. (2022). China’s military development of alternative energy. Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
6. Chen, Z., Kong, F., & Zhang, M. (2022). A case study of extreme rainfall and flooding in Zhengzhou. MDPI, 2970.
7. China Meteorological Administration. (2022). Blue book on climate change in China.
8. ChinaPower Project (CSIS). (2016). How is China’s energy footprint changing? https://chinapower.csis.org/energy-footprint/
9. Corbett, T. (2022). As climate change threatens China, PLA is missing in action. Defense One. https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/01/climate-change-threatens-china-pla-missing-action/360851/
10. Enerdata. (2024). Global energy & CO₂ data – China oil consumption. https://www.enerdata.net
11. Energy Institute. (2024). Statistical review of world energy 2024.
12. Guan, D., Shan, Y., Huang, Q., Chen, H., Wang, D., & Hubacek, K. (2021). Assessing recent changes in China’s emissions pattern. Earth’s Future, 9(11).
13. Health Effects Institute. (2020). State of global air 2020.
14. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2022). Climate change 2022: Mitigation of climate change.
15. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). CO₂ emissions in 2023.
16. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Energy statistics data browser: China. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-statistics-data-browse
17. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil demand for fuels in China has reached a plateau. https://www.iea.org/commentaries
18. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Tracking energy use in industry. https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-industry-2024
19. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Tracking energy use in industry. https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-industry-2024
20. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Tracking industry 2024. https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-industry-2024
21. International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). (2023). Asia-Pacific regional security assessment 2023.
22. Koyama, K. (2024). International energy situation 2023. Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.
23. Liu, J., et al. (2019). Analysis of CO₂ emissions in China’s manufacturing industry based on extended logarithmic mean division index decomposition. Sustainability, 11(1), 226.
24. Liu, J., Yang, Q., Zhang, Y., Sun, W., & Xu, Y. (2019). Analysis of CO₂ emissions in China’s manufacturing industry. Sustainability, 11(1), 226.
25. Liu, L. T. (2022). China’s climate security vulnerabilities. Center for Climate and Security.
26. Mardell, J. (2020). National security and the climate crisis. MERICS.
27. Neimark, B. D., Belcher, O., Bigger, P., & Kennelly, C. (2024). Confronting military greenhouse gas emissions. Queen Mary University of London.
28. Parkinson, S., & Cottrell, L. (2022). Estimating the military’s global greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists for Global Responsibility & Conflict and Environment Observatory.
29. Peking University Institute of Ocean Research. (2023). Impact of sea-level rise on coastal military infrastructure.
30. PubAffairs Bruxelles. (2023). Addressing the military carbon footprint at COP28. https://www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-analysis/addressing-the-military-carbon-footprint-at-cop28
31. Sandalow, D., et al. (2023). Guide to Chinese climate policy 2022. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
32. Shan, Y., Guan, D., & Liu, Z. (2021). China’s industrial carbon management: Balancing capacity, economy, and climate. Applied Energy, 302.
33. Shan, Y., Huang, Q., Guan, D., & Hubacek, K. (2020). China CO₂ emission accounts 2016–2017. Scientific Data, 7(1), 54.
34. The Military Emissions Gap. (2023). https://militaryemissions.org/
35. U.S. Army War College. (2023). A baseline assessment of the PLA army's border reinforcement operations. https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu
36. U.S. Department of Defense. (2024). Military and security developments involving the PRC.
37. U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission. (2016). China’s island building in the South China Sea.
38. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). (2023). Emissions gap report 2023. https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023
39. Wilson Center. (2023). China’s climate security vulnerabilities. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/chinas-climate-security-vulnerabilities
40. World Bank. (2023). Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.MANF.ZS
41. World Bank. (2023). World development indicators: Manufacturing value added. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.MANF.CD
42. Yang, M. (2021). As aluminium surges in China, so do carbon emissions. Ember. https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/as-aluminium-surges-in-china-so-do-carbon-emissions/
43. Zhang, Q., Ni, X., & Zhang, F. (2017). Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China. Scientific Reports, 7.
44. Zhou, X., Guan, D., & Liu, Z. (2021). Energy efficiency trends in China’s industrial sector: A structural decomposition analysis. Energy Economics, 94, 105.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
