The Evolution of Prevention in the European Counter-Terrorism Strategy 2005–2026
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61353/ma.0250479Keywords:
Terrorism Prevention, European Counter-Terrorism Strategy, Violent Extremism, Preventive Governance, Anticipation, Programme EffectivenessAbstract
This article examines transformations of prevention in the European counter-terrorism strategy between 2005 and 2026 through a thematic review of academic literature and European policy documents. It focuses on the evolution of the concept and strategic position of prevention, changes in the timing of intervention and the object of risk, the distribution of responsibilities among actors, and the development of preventive tools, knowledge governance, and digitalisation. It also examines the available evidence concerning effectiveness, trust, and legitimacy. The review identifies an expanding preventive field shaped by anticipatory approaches, multi-actor governance, and the growing involvement of education, health, social services, and local authorities. Professional knowledge and digital technologies have also acquired greater importance in guiding preventive intervention. Evaluation studies reveal uneven development between institutional and operational expansion and the strength of evidence capable of tracing long-term behavioural effects. The article develops an interpretive synthesis linking risk definition, intervention timing, institutional arrangements, evidence quality, trust, and legitimacy.
References
1. جابر، مها قيس. (2021). سياسات الأمن الوطني في العراق بعد عام 2003. مجلة المعهد، (7)، 397–414. https://doi.org/10.61353/ma.0070397
2. الشمري، صلاح مهدي هادي، وحميد، علي حسين. (2022). نحو دور محوري لجهاز مكافحة الإرهاب العراقي في مجابهة التحديات غير التقليدية: الأمن السيبراني أنموذجاً. مجلة المعهد، (8)، 271–292. https://doi.org/10.61353/ma.0080271
3. مرزوك، علي أحمد عبد. (2026). فاعلية السياسة الدفاعية العراقية في مكافحة الإرهاب: جهاز مكافحة الإرهاب (ICTS) دراسة حالة. مجلة المعهد، (24)، 165–200. https://doi.org/10.61353/ma.0240165
4. Argomaniz, J. (2009). Post-9/11 institutionalisation of European Union counter-terrorism: Emergence, acceleration and inertia. European Security, 18(2), 151–172. https://doi.org/10.1080/09662830903460103
5. Baker-Beall, C., & Mott, G. (2021). The new EU counter-terrorism agenda: Preemptive security through the anticipation of terrorist events. Global Affairs, 7(5), 711–732. https://doi.org/10.1080/23340460.2021.1995461
6. Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2006). Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 3(2), 77–101. https://doi.org/10.1191/1478088706qp063oa
7. Carthy, S. L., Doody, C. B., Cox, K., O’Hora, D., & Sarma, K. M. (2020). Counter-narratives for the prevention of violent radicalisation: A systematic review of targeted interventions. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 16(3), e1106. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1106
8. Council of the European Union. (2005a). The European Union counter-terrorism strategy (14469/4/05 REV 4). https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-14469-2005-REV-4/en/pdf
9. Council of the European Union. (2005b). The European Union strategy for combating radicalisation and recruitment to terrorism (14781/1/05 REV 1). https://register.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/05/st14/st14781-re01.en05.pdf
10. Council of the European Union. (2014). Revised EU strategy for combating radicalisation and recruitment to terrorism (9956/14). https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-9956-2014-INIT/en/pdf
11. European Commission. (2016). Supporting the prevention of radicalisation leading to violent extremism (COM(2016) 379 final). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52016DC0379
12. European Commission. (2018). Replies of the Commission to Special Report No. 13/2018: Tackling radicalisation that leads to terrorism. https://www.eca.europa.eu/lists/ecadocuments/sr18_13/sr_radicalisation_en.pdf
13. European Commission. (2020). A counter-terrorism agenda for the EU: Anticipate, prevent, protect, respond (COM(2020) 795 final). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52020DC0795
14. European Commission. (2026). ProtectEU: Agenda to prevent and counter terrorism (COM(2026) 101 final). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52026DC0101
15. European Court of Auditors. (2018). Tackling radicalisation that leads to terrorism: The Commission addressed the needs of Member States, but with some shortfalls in coordination and evaluation (Special Report No. 13/2018). https://www.eca.europa.eu/lists/ecadocuments/sr18_13/sr_radicalisation_en.pdf
16. Gielen, A.-J. (2019). Countering violent extremism: A realist review for assessing what works, for whom, in what circumstances, and how? Terrorism and Political Violence, 31(6), 1149–1167. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2017.1313736
17. Gough, D. (2007). Weight of evidence: A framework for the appraisal of the quality and relevance of evidence. Research Papers in Education, 22(2), 213–228. https://doi.org/10.1080/02671520701296189
18. Heath-Kelly, C. (2024). Multi-agency counter-terrorism in Britain and Norway: Intelligence agencies and the administration of welfare. Security Dialogue, 55(4), 386–403. https://doi.org/10.1177/09670106241234203
19. Koehler, D. (2021). Deradicalisation in Germany: Preventing and countering violent extremism. Revista CIDOB d’Afers Internacionals, 128, 59–79. https://doi.org/10.24241/rcai.2021.128.2.59/en
20. Lewis, J., Marsden, S., Cherney, A., Zeuthen, M., Rahlf, L., Squires, C., & Peterscheck, A. (2024). Case management interventions seeking to counter radicalisation to violence and related forms of violence: A systematic review. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 20(2), e1386. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1386
21. Madriaza, P., Morin, D., & Hassan, G. (2025). How rigorous are evaluations of violent extremism prevention programs? Results from a systematic methodological review. Terrorism and Political Violence. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2025.2555221
22. Martini, A., & Fernández de Mosteyrín, L. (2023). From state to social actors in extremism prevention: A state of the art. URVIO. Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad, 35, 110–128. https://doi.org/10.17141/urvio.35.2023.5343
23. Mazerolle, L., Cherney, A., Eggins, E., Hine, L., & Higginson, A. (2021). Multiagency programs with police as a partner for reducing radicalisation to violence. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 17(2), e1162. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1162
24. Melhuish, F., & Heath-Kelly, C. (2022). Fighting terrorism at the local level: The European Union, radicalisation prevention and the negotiation of subsidiarity. European Security, 31(2), 313–333. https://doi.org/10.1080/09662839.2021.2009458
25. Pistone, I., Eriksson, E., Beckman, U., Mattsson, C., & Sager, M. (2019). A scoping review of interventions for preventing and countering violent extremism: Current status and implications for future research. Journal for Deradicalization, 19, 1–84. https://jd.journals.publicknowledgeproject.org/index.php/jd/article/view/213
26. Schmid, A. P. (2013). Radicalisation, de-radicalisation, counter-radicalisation: A conceptual discussion and literature review. International Centre for Counter-Terrorism. https://doi.org/10.19165/2013.1.02
27. Snyder, H. (2019). Literature review as a research methodology: An overview and guidelines. Journal of Business Research, 104, 333–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.07.039
28. Stephens, W., Sieckelinck, S., & Boutellier, H. (2021). Preventing violent extremism: A review of the literature. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 44(4), 346–361. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2018.1543144
29. Taylor, L., & Soni, A. (2017). Preventing radicalisation: A systematic review of literature considering the lived experiences of the UK’s Prevent strategy in educational settings. Pastoral Care in Education, 35(4), 241–252. https://doi.org/10.1080/02643944.2017.1358296
30. Wolfowicz, M., Hasisi, B., & Weisburd, D. (2022). What are the effects of different elements of media on radicalization outcomes? A systematic review. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 18(2), e1244. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1244
31. Wolfowicz, M., Litmanovitz, Y., Weisburd, D., & Hasisi, B. (2021). Cognitive and behavioral radicalization: A systematic review of the putative risk and protective factors. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 17(3), e1174. https://doi.org/10.1002/cl2.1174
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
